Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-11-17 00:00:00+00:00 19.794964 21.535856 23.460429 25.766157 28.481263 31.613119 35.554120
2024-11-24 00:00:00+00:00 17.195598 19.483194 22.201405 25.742228 30.350859 36.333549 45.045783
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 15.299535 17.835081 21.008571 25.414730 31.637648 40.607555 55.699224
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 14.028784 16.724979 20.243824 25.399334 33.230721 45.714611 70.241424
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 12.974588 15.735255 19.457183 25.151295 34.349804 50.412205 87.345588
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 12.124454 14.909581 18.766002 24.885848 35.323695 55.180503 109.094357
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 11.436437 14.230204 18.188312 24.675606 36.303922 60.346602 138.755065
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 10.870215 13.666190 17.708746 24.531250 37.344263 66.126259 181.953440
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 10.290129 13.033852 17.060025 24.004130 37.518825 69.975115 228.937158
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 10.110019 12.966045 17.262700 24.955388 40.908319 84.428362 427.803075
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 9.705376 12.533061 16.846658 24.736064 41.722990 91.983408 697.194790
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 9.389141 12.211732 16.580685 24.754542 43.091662 102.724351 1622.998204
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 9.116675 11.945267 16.390302 24.908376 44.893087 117.505497 24607.462913
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 8.857708 11.684178 16.187901 25.013449 46.630274 134.792434 NaN
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 8.560165 11.345940 15.829220 24.758759 47.345529 148.449740 NaN
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 8.329141 11.100544 15.612138 24.770268 48.844678 170.377926 NaN
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 8.079360 10.812378 15.300350 24.544257 49.591541 189.686319 NaN
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 7.844268 10.536882 14.993298 24.294772 50.217661 210.876426 NaN
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 7.632598 10.289955 14.722024 24.095235 50.973268 237.344523 NaN
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 7.443523 10.071742 14.489314 23.957620 51.922795 272.090125 NaN
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 7.216268 9.781887 14.110849 23.451431 51.456430 287.749051 NaN
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 7.188592 9.820278 14.335096 24.365819 56.544531 447.538015 NaN
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 7.020190 9.616402 14.096580 24.155235 57.242348 531.051486 NaN